February 2003
- Announcing Game Programming Gems 4 Andrew Kirmse
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Brian Hook
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Caliban Tiresias Darklock
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Paul Schwanz
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Sasha Hart
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Brian Hook
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Koster, Raph
- Secondary characters as a mechanic adam
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Ted L. Chen
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Brian Hook
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Rayzam
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Sasha Hart
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Michael Tresca
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Serafina Pechan
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Damion Schubert
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Sasha Hart
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- Secondary characters as a mechanic John Buehler
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Edward Glowacki
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Brian Hook
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Wes Connell
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Harrok
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Brian Hook
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Richard Aihoshi aka Jonric
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Brian Hook
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Sasha Hart
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Adam
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Russ Whiteman
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Valerio Santinelli
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Adam Burr
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Valerio Santinelli
- Secondary characters as a mechanic Adam Burr
- Limited character lifespans Dan Shiovitz
- Limited character lifespans Richard Krush
- Limited character lifespans Hans-Henrik Staerfeldt
- Limited character lifespans Peter "Pietro" Rossmann
- Limited character lifespans shren
- Limited character lifespans Paul Cobb
- Limited character lifespans Rayzam
- Limited character lifespans Sasha Hart
- Limited character lifespans Paul Schwanz
- Limited character lifespans Damion Schubert
- Limited character lifespans David H. Loeser Jr.
- How to Find a VC Michael Tresca
- How to Find a VC Koster, Raph
- How to Find a VC Amanda Walker
- How to Find a VC Marc Fielding
- Re:Secondary characters as a mechanic Thiago Moraes
- AP Wire story on activism in MMOG games Marc Fielding
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Chris
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Paul Schwanz
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Dave Rickey
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? John Buehler
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Damion Schubert
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? John Buehler
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? ceo
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Marian Griffith
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Dave Rickey
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Lee Sheldon
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? J C Lawrence
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Paul Schwanz
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? J C Lawrence
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Lee Sheldon
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? J C Lawrence
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Ron Gabbard
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Damion Schubert
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Paul Schwanz
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Zach Collins {Siege}
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Amanda Walker
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Amanda Walker
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? J C Lawrence
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Chris Holko
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Dave Rickey
- MMORPG, buildings, is it bad to be just props? Koster, Raph
- Predictive models for churn in subscription based games Scott A. Farley
In a previous incarnation (incarceration?) of my career I created
churn models for a wireless phone carrier. I was working with
pre-paid wireless products, where the customer had no contract or
obligation to continue service other then the USD$50 or so as a sunk
cost in the phone handset. The average customer spent between $25
and $40 per month to purchase their airtime, usually on phone cards
in convenience stores, or via phone using a credit card.
I occurred to me that this is a roughly similar model to a retail
box MMO with a subscription so I thought I would share some
observations regarding churn models.
- Definition of churn
Churn is the percentage of total subscribers that discontinue
service divided into the total population. Usually it is
expressed as a percent based on the population change from month
to month. An average monthly churn rate for wireless phones is
around 5%.
Churn should be calculated on the existing subscriber base and
not include new subscriptions within the time period measured.
The purpose of this metric is to understand the retention rate.
How many existing customers at the end of January are customers
at the end of February?
As a measure of retention, management would like to see a steady,
predictable rate of churn. This allows for long term planning and
validates business assumptions regarding fixed costs like equipment.
My experience is that churn is rarely steady and that predicting the
spikes in churn before they occur goes a long way toward helping
planning and the viability of the specific subscription model.
- Predictive models for churn
My most successful predictive model for churn was based on two
major factors, the size of the monthly 'add' population and that
population's length of stay. The easiest way to predict a
future churn rate was to view the total population of
subscribers as many discrete populations based on the service
start month. Each monthly population goes through a retention
curve, where subscribers churn at an expected rate based on
their length of service.
So if you add 10,000 subs in December, and you expect that 20% will
not pay past the first month, (your historical month one retention)
then you will have 2,000 subs leaving in January. In February, the
expected churn for the December population drops to 8%, so you need
to predict a loss of 8,000 *.08 = 640 subs leaving 7,360 in the
December population. The retention rate curve usually declines over
the length of service for wireless phones, so for this fictitious
population, March might be 6%, then every month for next 4 might be
5%, then 4% for the next 6 months, etc. The December population can
only decline over time as more and more of it's members drop their
subscriptions. For MMOs, I expect there is a serious spike in churn
after some period of time as players simply grow tired of the game.
The basic tenet of this model is that churn spikes for the entire
subscriber population are driven by churn spikes for specific
populations, based on subscription start, aged along an expected
retention curve. By creating individual populations based on month
of initiation and aging those populations over time, very accurate
models of future retention can be made.
Measuring the effects of market changes or promotions to the
retention curves of each specific population is the true value of
churn analysis. For MMOs, I would guess that developing age-based
retention projections is also the hardest part of predicting future
churn.
FWIW, always discount February churn numbers, since it has 10% less
days in the numerator of the churn calculation!
SAF - Predictive models for churn in subscription based games Damion Schubert
- Mud Servers on RedHat Linux 7.2 Coyote
- Protecting the Player's Suspension of Disbelief Ron Gabbard
- Protecting the Player's Suspension of Disbelief Sasha Hart
- Protecting the Player's Suspension of Disbelief Paul Schwanz
- Protecting the Player's Suspension of Disbelief Caliban Tiresias Darklock
- Protecting the Player's Suspension of Disbelief Damion Schubert
- Protecting the Player's Suspension of Disbelief Ron Gabbard
- Protecting the Player's Suspension of Disbelief Marc Fielding
- Protecting the Player's Suspension of Disbelief Serafina Pechan
- Asian markets research question Dr. Cat
- MUD-Dev conference J C Lawrence
- MUD-Dev conference J C Lawrence
- Re:Secondary characters as a mechanic Thiago Moraes
- Re:Secondary characters as a mechanic Sasha Hart
- Gaming 'is good for you' Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- Gaming 'is good for you' Daniel
- Skill vs Knowledge (was: Brand Loyalty) ceo
- Skill vs Knowledge (was: Brand Loyalty) Caliban Tiresias Darklock
- FW: Cultural impact on Muds (was: Star Wars Galaxies) Damion Schubert
- Cultural impact on Muds Matt Mihaly
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? Rudy Fink
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? Damion Schubert
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? Matt Mihaly
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? Marc Fielding
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? Matt Mihaly
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? eric
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? J C Lawrence
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? Matt Mihaly
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? eric
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? Matt Mihaly
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? Zach Collins {Siege}
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? eric
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? Matt Mihaly
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? Steven J. Owens
- Justification for audit trails in guilds? chrep@hotmail.com
- New issue of the Daedalus Project Koster, Raph
- New issue of the Daedalus Project Ola Fosheim Grøstad
- Movie-Making Games (Was Spam: Star Wars Galaxies: 1 character per server) Damion Schubert
- Movie-Making Games (Was Spam: Star Wars Galaxies: 1 character per server) Damion Schubert
- Threading and Queues (What Fun) Ben Chambers
- Threading and Queues (What Fun) Sean Miller
- Threading and Queues (What Fun) szii@sziisoft.com
- Threading and Queues (What Fun) lynx@lynx.purrsia.com
- A new game paradigm (was: Star Wars Galaxies) Marian Griffith
- A new game paradigm (was: Star Wars Galaxies) Scott Miller - Intelligent Life Games
- A new game paradigm (was: Star Wars Galaxies) Caliban Tiresias Darklock
- A new game paradigm (was: Star Wars Galaxies) Thomas Tomiczek
- A new game paradigm (was: Star Wars Galaxies) J C Lawrence
- A new game paradigm (was: Star Wars Galaxies) Scott Miller - Intelligent Life Games
- A new game paradigm (was: Star Wars Galaxies) Travis Casey
- A new game paradigm (was: Star Wars Galaxies) Caliban Tiresias Darklock
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Weston Fryatt
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Edward Glowacki
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design J C Lawrence
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Edward Glowacki
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design J C Lawrence
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Thomas Tomiczek
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design J C Lawrence
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Bruce Mitchener
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Thomas Tomiczek
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design J C Lawrence
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design ceo
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Damion Schubert
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Jeremy Noetzelman
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Weston Fryatt
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Jeremy Noetzelman
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Weston Fryatt
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design J C Lawrence
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Weston Fryatt
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design J C Lawrence
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Damion Schubert
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Derek Licciardi
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design J C Lawrence
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design ceo
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design J C Lawrence
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Caliban Tiresias Darklock
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Sean Kelly
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design John Buehler
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Sean Kelly
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Thomas Tomiczek
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Keith Brewer
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design J C Lawrence
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Mike Shaver
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Keith Brewer
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Crosbie Fitch
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Mike Shaver
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design lynx@lynx.purrsia.com
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design Ted L. Chen
- Movie-Making Games (Was Spam: Star Wars Scott Jennings
- Movie-Making Games (Was Spam: Star Wars ceo
- Multithreading: AI, Sockets, Brains, Bodies, and Storage Brian Lindahl
- Multithreading: AI, Sockets, Brains, Bodies, and Storage J C Lawrence
- Multithreading: AI, Sockets, Brains, Bodies, and Storage J C Lawrence
- Multithreading: AI, Sockets, Brains, Bodies, and Storage Caliban Tiresias Darklock
- Perl - SOAP/XML - Slow? Tom Sullivan
- Perl - SOAP/XML - Slow? J C Lawrence
- Perl - SOAP/XML - Slow? Tom Sullivan
- Perl - SOAP/XML - Slow? J C Lawrence
- Perl - SOAP/XML - Slow? Mark Cheverton
- Perl - SOAP/XML - Slow? Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- Perl - SOAP/XML - Slow? Stephane Boisjoli
- Perl - SOAP/XML - Slow? Caliban Tiresias Darklock
- Hourly usage Peter Tyson
- Hourly usage lynx@lynx.purrsia.com
- Hourly usage Michael Tresca
- In this corner.representing SCS.The Tyrant! F. Randall Farmer
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Crosbie Fitch
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Mike Shaver
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Crosbie Fitch
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Felix A. Croes
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Crosbie Fitch
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Travis Nixon
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Crosbie Fitch
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Felix A. Croes
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Crosbie Fitch
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Felix A. Croes
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Crosbie Fitch
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Felix A. Croes
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Crosbie Fitch
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Amanda Walker
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Ted L. Chen
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Ben Hoyt
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Derek Licciardi
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Crosbie Fitch
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Ben Hoyt
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Felix A. Croes
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Crosbie Fitch
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Caliban Tiresias Darklock
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Ben Hoyt
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Ben Hoyt
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design lynx@lynx.purrsia.com
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Crosbie Fitch
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design lynx@lynx.purrsia.com
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Crosbie Fitch
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design lynx@lynx.purrsia.com
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Crosbie Fitch
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design lynx@lynx.purrsia.com
- MMORPG/MMOG P2P design Crosbie Fitch
- workload simulation (was: MMORPG/MMOG Server design) Mike Shaver
- MMORPG/MMOG Server design - intel-ligent choices of hardware ; ) ceo
- workload simulation (was: MMORPG/MMOG Server design) ceo
- Team management Peter Harkins
- Team management Tom Sullivan
- Team management Sanvean
- Team management Michael Tresca
- Virtual worlds meet LARPs Richard A. Bartle
- Virtual worlds meet LARPs Mark Cheverton
- Virtual worlds meet LARPs Richard A. Bartle
- Virtual worlds meet LARPs Lee Sheldon
- Skotos Kicks Off Associate Program Shannon Appelcline
- Infrastructure kat-Zygfryd