April 2003
- Improper Assessment Brian Lindahl
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Ryan S. Dancey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Vincent Archer
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Chris Holko
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Louis
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Freeman, Jeff
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Bad Mojo
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" a t y mcguire
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Vincent Archer
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Matt Mihaly
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Chris Holko
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Matt Mihaly
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Damion Schubert
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Ryan S. Dancey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Boyle, Paul
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Damion Schubert
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Dave Rickey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" John Buehler
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Dave Rickey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" John Buehler
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Dave Rickey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" John Buehler
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Dave Rickey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" John Buehler
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Dave Rickey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Marian Griffith
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Dave Rickey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Dave Rickey
From: <Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com>
> From: Dave Rickey [mailto:mahrinskel@brokentoys.org]
>> I have seen evidence that strongly indicates that empowerment
>> *is* a prime mover, in Camelot at least. Unfortunately, it's the
>> result of studying the cancellation rates vs. the highest level
>> character on the account (also vs. tradeskill advancement and
>> Realm Levels), and as a result I can't discuss it in too much
>> detail or make the data available for review. But it was pretty
>> unequivocable. There's a linear relationship between advancement
>> and cancellation rates, an incredibly strong correlation.
> So your are saying that people who have high level chars are more
> likely to renew their account? Surely you could draw the opposite
> conclusion that people who renew their account are more likely to
> have high level chars?
How are those two statements different? What I found was that if I
divided the accounts by the level of the highest character on that
account, the month-to-month cancellation percentage rates were
invariant by any other subdivision (within statistical variation).
The age of the accounts was irrelevant, if that is what you were
getting at, the cancellation rate of accounts 3 months old with 50th
level characters was statistically identical to that of accounts
that were over a year old, and for all other levels. Oddly enough,
so was the cancellation rates of 5th level mains in the same time
periods (in other words, there were an appreciable number of
year-old accounts with their highest level character at 5th level,
and they cancelled at exactly the same rate as accounts that were 3
months or less in age).
Beyond that, the proportions of 12+ month old accounts with 5th
level mains that were and were not cancelled was almost exactly what
would have been predicted if that percentage was an invariant. And
someone who had been 5th level for 15 months had the same chance of
quitting *this* month as someone who had paid for only a second
month (first "free" month conversion rates were a different story)
I had truly reliable data for only the first quarter of 2003 and
June of 2002 when I ran my analysis, what was interesting was that
the June data *did* show some discrepencies when analyzed by class
and level, specifically a few classes with higher cancellation rates
and a big bulge in the cancellations of 41st level mains (there was
a "hell level" at 41 at that time). After the changes made to
address those initial findings (smoothing the levelling curve to
eliminate the hell level and buffing up a few classes), all that was
left was that invariant linear relationship. In other words, it was
exactly as if the linear relationship between cancellation and level
was some kind of universal constant, that would pop out when the
game was "close enough".
It's only data from one game, and from a fairly short period. But
it was so unexpected and so strong of a correlation, it has to mean
*something*.
--Dave - D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Dave Rickey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Paul Schwanz
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Amanda Walker
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Marian Griffith
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Sean Kelly
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Amanda Walker
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Daniel Anderson
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Dave Rickey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Daniel Anderson
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- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Dave Rickey
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- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Dave Rickey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Jeff Cole
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Dave Rickey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Marian Griffith
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- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Paul Canniff
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- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Jeff Cole
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- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Rayzam
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Marian Griffith
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Marian Griffith
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Vincent Archer
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Marian Griffith
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" shren
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- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Threshold RPG
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- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Threshold RPG
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- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Paul Schwanz
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- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Matthew Dobervich
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- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Matt Mihaly
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Scott Jennings
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Matt Mihaly
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" lynx@lynx.purrsia.com
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- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Samurai Cat @ Catacombs
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Travis Casey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Threshold RPG
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Travis Casey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Threshold RPG
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Ryan S. Dancey
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Threshold RPG
- D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity" Freeman, Jeff
- pluggable MMOGs ceo
- pluggable MMOGs John Robert Arras
- pluggable MMOGs ceo
- pluggable MMOGs Daniel James
- pluggable MMOGs ceo
- pluggable MMOGs Lee Sheldon
- pluggable MMOGs ceo
- pluggable MMOGs Lee Sheldon
- NEWS: Planetside preview @ UGO Louis
- 'Stop and smell the roses' (was Winnable MMO) lynx@lynx.purrsia.com
- 'Stop and smell the roses' (was Winnable MMO) Damion Schubert
- 'Stop and smell the roses' (was Winnable MMO) Threshold RPG
- 'Stop and smell the roses' (was Winnable MMO) Baar - Lord of the Seven Suns
- 'Stop and smell the roses' (was Winnable MMO) Alex Kay
- MMORPG Politics (was D&D vs. MMORPG "complexity") Kwip
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- Who Killed Miss Norway? Richard A. Bartle
- Who Killed Miss Norway? rkoster@soe.sony.com
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- Who Killed Miss Norway? Threshold RPG
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- Who Killed Miss Norway? Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- Who Killed Miss Norway? Paul Schwanz
- Who Killed Miss Norway? Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
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- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Lance Rotten
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Jacob Cord
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Mike Shaver
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Zach Collins {Siege}
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Mike Shaver
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Matthew D. Fuller
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Mike Shaver
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! David Clifton
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- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Norman Morse
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Sean Kelly
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Mike Shaver
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! lynx@lynx.purrsia.com
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Byron Ellacott
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Jo Dillon
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! shren
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Eric Merritt
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! shren
- New to MUD Dev, need friendly advice! Eric Merritt
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- Game On(line) for Microsoft, Sony Michael Tresca
- Game On(line) for Microsoft, Sony Alex Kay
- ILG Creative Director Larry Dunlap to speak at E3 Panel Scott Miller
- Male and female brains Koster, Raph
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- Male and female brains Valerio Santinelli
- Male and female brains Richard A. Bartle
- Male and female brains Robin Cloutman
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- Male and female brains John Arras
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- Male and female brains John Arras
- Male and female brains Rayzam
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- Male and female brains Larry Dunlap at ILG
- student informational interview feebleman