July 2007

• [JOB] Linden Lab Brighton Party 26th July Jim Purbrick
• • [JOB] Linden Lab Brighton Party 26th July Christopher Lloyd
• [BIZ] Forum software? Mike Rozak
• • [BIZ] Forum software? Caliban Darklock
  • • [BIZ] Forum software? Adam Martin
  • [BIZ] Forum software? Chan Yong Wei
  • [BIZ] Forum software? Michael Chui
  • [BIZ] Forum software? David Johansson
  • [BIZ] Forum software? Dana V. Baldwin
  • • [BIZ] Forum software? David Johansson
  • [BIZ] Forum software? Morgan Ramsay
• [DESIGN] Will players pay for public services? Nicholas Koranda
• • [DESIGN] Will players pay for public services? cruise
• [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Nicholas Koranda
• • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Tom Hudson
  • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Vincent Archer
  • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Travis Casey
  • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Tom Hudson
    • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Travis Casey
      • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Caliban Darklock
      • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... cruise
        • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Caliban Darklock
          • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... cruise
            • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Caliban Darklock
              • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... cruise
                • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Caliban Darklock
                  • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Tom Hudson
                  • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Vincent Archer
                • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Vincent Archer
                • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Caliban Darklock
                  • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Aurel Mihai
                    • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... cruise
                      • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... John Buehler
                      • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Michael Chui
                    • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Vincent Archer
                    • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Caliban Darklock
                      • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Vincent Archer
                        • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Caliban Darklock
                          • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Vincent Archer
                            • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Caliban Darklock
                              • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... cruise
                                • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Vincent Archer
                                  • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Caliban Darklock
                                  • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Vincent Archer
                                    • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Vincent Archer
                                      • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Caliban Darklock
                                  • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Vincent Archer
                                  • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Caliban Darklock
                            • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Michael Chui
                            • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Vincent Archer
                        • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... cruise
            • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Vincent Archer
          • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... John Arras
          • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Caliban Darklock
            • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Damion Schubert
              • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... John Buehler
              • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... cruise
                • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Damion Schubert
                  • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... John Buehler
                    • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Damion Schubert
                      • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... John Buehler
                      • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... cruise
                      • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Vincent Archer
                        • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Caliban Darklock
              • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Acius
              • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... cruise
          • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Tom Hudson
        • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Tom Hudson
        • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Caliban Darklock
    • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Jarod Reid
    • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Vincent Archer
    • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... cruise
    • • [DESIGN] Removing the almighty experience point... Travis Casey
• [DESIGN] Believable NPCs (was Natural Language Generation) Nicholas Koranda
• [DESIGN] Active and Inactive Currency Nicholas Koranda
• • [DESIGN] Active and Inactive Currency Travis Casey
  • • [DESIGN] Active and Inactive Currency Jon Leonard
    • [DESIGN] Active and Inactive Currency Peter Keeler
    • • [DESIGN] Active and Inactive Currency Caliban Darklock
      • • [DESIGN] Active and Inactive Currency Peter Keeler
        • • [DESIGN] Active and Inactive Currency Michael Chui
          • • [DESIGN] Active and Inactive Currency Caliban Darklock
            • • [DESIGN] Active and Inactive Currency John Buehler
              • [DESIGN] Active and Inactive Currency Johnicholas Hines
• [DESIGN] Expected value and standard deviation Nicholas Koranda
• • [DESIGN] Expected value and standard deviation Travis Casey
  • [DESIGN] Expected value and standard deviation cruise
  • • [DESIGN] Expected value and standard deviation Darryl Woodford
      On 7/30/07, cruise <cruise@casual-tempest.net> wrote:
      > > I have been playing poker for many years and recently have been
      > > teaching a couple of friends Texas Hold 'Em (due in large part to
      > > ESPN/Travel Channel). I had to recently explain to them that it is
      > > not as much about maximizing expected value, as it is balancing
      > > expected value with standard deviation.
      
      <snip>
      
      > To be honest, an explanation of exactly what is meant by "balancing
      > expected value with standard deviation" - statistics was always my least
      > favourite part of maths :P
      
      In a big money poker tournament, you might have a hand where you
      (think) you are a slight favorite (52%/48% or so), say you have a high
      pair and you think your opponent probably has two over cards or
      similar (AQo, JKo etc..).
      
      If you were playing short stacked (let's say you have 6000 chips), and
      your opponent (with 50000) put you all in, you're going to call,
      because it's a good spot to get value for your hand, and you probably
      won't last much longer anyway (blinded down, antes etc..)
      
      Now let's assume you also have 50000 chips, and are the joint leader
      of the tournament. Same hand. Opponent puts you all in. Should you
      call? Well, in terms of expected value, yes.. in the "long run",
      you'll be ahead by doing so.. but is there a long run? How many times
      will you be in this position in a big money tournament? So the
      decision on whether to call here or not includes a consideration of
      variance (or standard deviations if you prefer). Calling would be a
      high risk move, and you should probably fold, and look for a better
      spot to put your money in (or outlast more players to cash more money
      etc..)
      
      (Percentages and numbers fudged for effect only)
      
      ~D
      
      --
      Darryl Woodford