Abalieno wrote:
> "Mike Sellers" <mike@onlinealchemy.com> said:
>
> > Right now there are thousands of incredibly smart, dedicated,
> thoughtful,
> > creative, talented individuals and teams hard at work on what they hope
> > and believe will be the Next Big Thing across a variety of industries.
>
> Then why there's WoW and... WoW. And maybe Eve-Online?
And Age of Conan, Stargate Worlds, Star Trek Online, Gods and Heroes,
Huxley, Hellgate London, and literally dozens you haven't heard of -- to say
nothing of the announced-but-vapor projects listed on places like
MMORPG.com.
> Or mediocre clones? Where are these incredibly smart, dedicated,
> thoughtful, creative, talented individuals and teams who are actually
> trying to deliver something that improves instead of chase? Why we talk
> along the years always about the same issues when not even a small step
> is done toward at least trying to address them?
Because to do something other than "chase" you have to get someone who's
willing to put up the millions of dollars needed to take that bet. It's
much less risky to do something a lot like what someone else has done, even
if that hardly stretches your creativity. Creativity is risky -- which
means a lot of the time, it's a sink hole for cash that could be better used
elsewhere.
> I think Raph's point is actually that there isn't going to be a Big
> Thing for quite a while, and I tend to agree.
Who can say? Next Big Things tend to come out of nowhere and/or be highly
doubted right up until they become obvious. OTOH, there's a lot of crappy
ideas that come out of nowhere and are broadly doubted right up until they
die off or become irrelevant, so guessing the Next Big Thing in advance is
pretty difficult.
> > The one thing about the Next Big Thing is that it's almost *impossible*
> to
> > predict -- except in retrospect, when everyone is suddenly much more
> > perceptive.
>
> That's untrue.
>
> It's just that the Next Big Thing cannot be guessed from a poll. It's
> much more a vision than an idea embraced by a majority.
>
> It becomes an idea embraced by a majority when it becomes a Big Thing.
Okay, then tell me what the NBT is: predict it for me. And if you're pretty
certain about this, if it *is* possible to discern what it's going to be,
how much of your hard-earned money are you willing to invest in it?
The monetary question is one that often stops people. It's easy to talk and
talk about what's certainly the next big thing, but when it's time to pony
up, suddenly people become shy and a lot more tentative. There's nothing
quite like putting your money (or moreso your money and career) on the line
to clarify your vision of what's next.
Mike Sellers