May 2007

• [DESIGN] Developing and balancing a roleplaying system Calvin
• [ADMIN] Bounced Posts? Nick Koranda
• [Offtopic] Lend your ears to science! Mike Rozak
• [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Lachek Butalek
• • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Jacob Cord
  • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Steve "Bloo" Daniels
    • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Damion Schubert
      • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? John Buehler
        • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Damion Schubert
          • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? John Buehler
            • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Tess Snider
              • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
                • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Raph Koster
                  • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
                    • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Raph Koster
                      • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
                        • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
                          • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
                            • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
                              • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
                                • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
                                  • [DESIGN} Who to design for? cruise
                                  • [DESIGN} Who to design for? John MacQueen
                              • "The Next Big Thing" (was [DESIGN} Who to design for?) Mike Sellers
                              • • "The Next Big Thing" (was [DESIGN} Who to design for?) Sean Howard
                                  "Mike Sellers" <mike@onlinealchemy.com> wrote:
                                  
                                  >> You can't predict with 100% accuracy, no, but I think you can definitely
                                  >> make pretty good predictions on the next big thing.
                                  >
                                  > Man, that's incredibly wishful thinking.
                                  >
                                  > Right now there are thousands of incredibly smart, dedicated, thoughtful,
                                  > creative, talented individuals and teams hard at work on what they hope
                                  > and believe will be the Next Big Thing across a variety of industries.
                                  
                                  And many of them are obviously deluded. It only takes one look at their
                                  project to realize that it is more arrogance than actual talent. I mean,
                                  anybody who heard Brad McQuaid's Vision about how online gaming should
                                  work realized that it was a bunch of crap and that Vanguard was doomed
                                  from the start. He was charismatic, but he was wrong.
                                  
                                  > Some of them might even be right, but we'll never know because they'll
                                  > lose out due to luck, undercapitalization, timing, etc. Others will be
                                  > close but won't quite get it.
                                  
                                  And that's why you can't predict it with 100% effectiveness. Look at Xerox
                                  PARC. You look at the stuff they created and they literally invented
                                  modern computing. But that inspiration wasn't enough by itself. Luckily
                                  (for us, not them) Steve Jobs visited and saw the Next Big Thing (if
                                  anybody can predict the Next Big Thing, it's that guy). So, it was
                                  absolutely the Next Big Thing (the Biggest Thing, perhaps), but it didn't
                                  come from the people who originally came up with it.
                                  
                                  That's the thing about the Next Big Thing. It's an idea. It's not an
                                  implementation. Because we are stupid and short sighted, we give credit to
                                  the first implementer, not the first one to have the idea. But I'm not
                                  going to get started on the "ideas are a dime a dozen" crap or we'll be
                                  here for a year arguing about it :)
                                  
                                  
                                  >> At the very least, you can say what WON'T be the Next Big Thing. Just
                                  >> work backwards. :)
                                  >
                                  > Again, wishful thinking. I'm not saying it's entirely hit-or-miss, but
                                  > there are so many factors that go into what catches on that have little
                                  > to do with the idea or even the team -- timing and execution make an
                                  > enormous difference -- that saying you can predict what will or won't be
                                  > a big hit is just silly.
                                  
                                  Nonsense. I can say that the Next Big Thing will be something that comes
                                  from a smaller team with a charismatic leader with a singular vision that
                                  energizes the team under a single forward thinking concept. It's going to
                                  be a new paradigm rather than a small twist on an old idea (why Mosaic was
                                  the Next Big Thing but tabbed browsing in Internet Explorer isn't).
                                  
                                  You find the vision, you've found the future.
                                  
                                  Here, I'll tell you what a Next Big Thing is going to be. Procedurally
                                  generated content. And I'm not talking Spore. I'm talking about the
                                  ability to type "build random scifi rpg" and it does. Because if we can
                                  design a way to define patterns and their relationship to each other, it
                                  will completely change how we view design. It's already happened with A
                                  Timeless Way of Building / A Pattern Language, but it didn't go far
                                  enough. By the time we can randomly generate a game from start to finish,
                                  EVERYTHING about design will change for EVERYBODY. That's going to come
                                  from gaming, and it's going to change the world.
                                  
                                  The problem is that the solution is non-obvious. It will take some very
                                  smart people with a very odd way of looking at the world. Hell, I'd love
                                  for it to be me, but I don't think I'm up to it. But man, I'd love to be
                                  the guy who wrote a videogame that ended up changing the world. As it is,
                                  I doubt PGC is going to happen in my lifetime. I mean, they were still
                                  called "random dungeons" until about a year ago.
                                  
                                  > Very smart, experienced, perceptive, talented people thought The Sims was
                                  > crap, that Majestic was going to be great, that the Segway would change
                                  > how we live, that the electron was a useless oddity, that TV would never
                                  > catch on, that you couldn't sell books online, that search would never be
                                  > profitable, etc., etc.
                                  
                                  Talent doesn't have anything to do with. Perhaps smart doesn't. And
                                  experience definitely doesn't. They bought into a vision, but only part of
                                  it. The visions that will change the world are the complete visions.
                                  Majestic could've been great and the Segway could've changed how we live,
                                  but those visions just didn't go far enough. They got you through the
                                  door, but the bathroom is still down the hall on the left.
                                  
                                  > The one thing about the Next Big Thing is that it's almost *impossible*
                                  > to predict -- except in retrospect, when everyone is suddenly much more
                                  > perceptive.
                                  
                                  Be perceptive now, I say. Just because hindsight is 20/20 doesn't mean
                                  foresight can't be on occasion.
                                  
                                  --
                                  Sean Howard
                                • • "The Next Big Thing" (was [DESIGN} Who to design for?) Peter Keeler
                          • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Michael Chui
                          • [DESIGN] Who to design for? Michael Hartman
                      • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Damion Schubert
                      • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
                  • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Tess Snider
                  • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
            • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
            • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? cruise
              • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
                • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
                  • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
                    • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
                      • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
                        • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
                          • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
                            • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Dana V. Baldwin
                              • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
                              • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
                                • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
                                  • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
                                    • • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
              • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Mike Sellers
            • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Tess Snider
            • • [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Mike Sellers
              • • [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Sean Howard
                • • [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Mike Sellers
                  • • [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Sean Howard
                    • • [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Michael Chui
                  • [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Peter Keeler
                  • • [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Ammon Lauritzen
                    • [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Sean Howard
                    • • [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Lachek Butalek
                      • [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Dana V. Baldwin
          • [DESIGN} Who to design for? cruise
          • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
          • [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
        • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Steve "Bloo" Daniels
        • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Caliban Darklock
          • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs cruise
            • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Steve "Bloo" Daniels
  • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Tess Snider
  • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Lachek Butalek
    • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Michael Chui
      • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Ian Hess
      • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Ian Hess
      • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Tess Snider
      • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Lachek Butalek
        • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Michael Hartman
          • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Kiztent
            • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Jean, Yannick
            • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Michael Hartman
              • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Vincent Archer
                • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Dave Scheffer
          • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Tess Snider
          • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Michael Chui
  • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs John Buehler
  • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Morris Cox
  • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Dana V. Baldwin
    • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Matt Chatterley
      • • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Dana V. Baldwin
        • [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Michael Chui
        • • [Design] Obstacles and Hindrances [was: Food in MMOs & Perma-death] cruise
• [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
• • [DESIGN] Perma-death Dana V. Baldwin
  • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Steve "Bloo" Daniels
  • [DESIGN] Perma-death Nick Koranda
  • • [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
  • [DESIGN] Perma-death Damion Schubert
  • • [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
    • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Dana V. Baldwin
      • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Steve "Bloo" Daniels
        • • [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
          • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Steve "Bloo" Daniels
            • [DESIGN] Perma-death Jeffrey Kesselman
  • [DESIGN] Perma-death Tess Snider
  • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Cory Cohen
    • [DESIGN] Perma-death Matt Chatterley
    • [DESIGN] Perma-death Craig Huber
    • • [JOBS] Areae hiring Raph Koster
    • [DESIGN] Perma-death Phillip Lenhardt
    • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Jeffrey Kesselman
      • [DESIGN] Perma-death Jeffrey Kesselman
      • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Tess Snider
        • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Jeffrey Kesselman
          • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Tess Snider
            • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Jeffrey Kesselman
              • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Dave Scheffer
                • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Dana V. Baldwin
                  • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Dave Scheffer
          • [DESIGN] Perma-death Matt Chatterley
          • [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
          • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Caliban Darklock
            • • [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
              • [DESIGN] Perma-death Dana V. Baldwin
              • • [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
        • [DESIGN] Perma-death Caliban Darklock
        • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Dana V. Baldwin
          • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Peter Keeler
            • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Dana V. Baldwin
              • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Peter Keeler
                • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Jeffrey Kesselman
                  • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Peter Keeler
                    • [DESIGN] Perma-death Michael Chui
      • [DESIGN] Perma-death Soy weiser
      • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Ammon Lauritzen
        • [DESIGN] Perma-death Jeffrey Kesselman
  • [DESIGN] Perma-death Ammon Lauritzen
  • • [DESIGN] Perma-death Dana V. Baldwin
  • [DESIGN] Perma-death John Buehler
  • [DESIGN] Perma-death Hans Häggström
  • • [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
• [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employee interview Adam Martin
• • [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employeeinterview Morgan Ramsay
  • [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employee interview Sean Howard
  • • [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employee interview Adam Martin
    • • [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employee interview Sean Howard
      • • [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employee interview Mike Sellers
        • • [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employee interview Michael Zenke
          • [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employee interview Sean Howard
          • [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employeeinterview Mike Rozak
          • • [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employeeinterview Mike Sellers
    • [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employee interview Caliban Darklock
  • [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employeeinterview Mike Rozak
  • • [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employeeinterview Sean Howard
• Fwd: [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employeeinterview Adam Martin
• [DESIGN] Mechanical support for socializer playstyles Ian Hess
• • [DESIGN] Mechanical support for socializer playstyles Michael Chui
  • • [DESIGN] Mechanical support for socializer playstyles Ian Hess
  • [DESIGN] Mechanical support for socializer playstyles Michael Chui
  • • [DESIGN] Mechanical support for socializer playstyles cruise
• [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Roger D Vargas
• • [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Alistair Riddoch
  • • [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Roger D Vargas
  • [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Tess Snider
  • • [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Roger D Vargas
    • • [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Lachek Butalek
      • [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Tess Snider
      • • [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Roger D Vargas
        • • [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Tess Snider
• The Merits of Text Chat (Was: Importance of emoting) Michael Hartman
• • The Merits of Text Chat (Was: Importance of emoting) Matt Chatterley
• [Design] Alternatives To Advancement Systems (was Food in MMOs) Caliban Darklock
• [DESIGN] Essence of a MMO (was 4Cs) Dana V. Baldwin
• • [DESIGN] Essence of a MMO (was 4Cs) Caliban Darklock
  • [DESIGN] Essence of a MMO (was 4Cs) Sean Howard
  • • [DESIGN] Essence of a MMO (was 4Cs) Dana V. Baldwin
• [TECH] Server Side Scripting Roger D Vargas
• • [TECH] Server Side Scripting Caliban Darklock
  • [TECH] Server Side Scripting Richard Tew
  • [TECH] Server Side Scripting Ammon Lauritzen
  • [TECH] Server Side Scripting Jeffrey Kesselman