May 2007
- [DESIGN] Developing and balancing a roleplaying system Calvin
- [ADMIN] Bounced Posts? Nick Koranda
- [Offtopic] Lend your ears to science! Mike Rozak
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Lachek Butalek
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Jacob Cord
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Steve "Bloo" Daniels
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Damion Schubert
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? John Buehler
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Damion Schubert
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? John Buehler
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Tess Snider
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Raph Koster
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Raph Koster
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? cruise
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? John MacQueen
- "The Next Big Thing" (was [DESIGN} Who to design for?) Mike Sellers
Sean Howard wrote:
> > In this case, the common wisdom is that you CAN'T predict
> > the Next Big Thing
>
> You can't predict with 100% accuracy, no, but I think you can definitely
> make pretty good predictions on the next big thing.
Man, that's incredibly wishful thinking.
Right now there are thousands of incredibly smart, dedicated, thoughtful,
creative, talented individuals and teams hard at work on what they hope and
believe will be the Next Big Thing across a variety of industries. Some of
them might even be right, but we'll never know because they'll lose out due
to luck, undercapitalization, timing, etc. Others will be close but won't
quite get it. Some will be just plain wrong. And one or two will be,
seemingly miraculously, proven right about their expectations.
> At the very least, you can say what WON'T be the Next Big Thing. Just work
> backwards. :)
Again, wishful thinking. I'm not saying it's entirely hit-or-miss, but
there are so many factors that go into what catches on that have little to
do with the idea or even the team -- timing and execution make an enormous
difference -- that saying you can predict what will or won't be a big hit is
just silly.
Very smart, experienced, perceptive, talented people thought The Sims was
crap, that Majestic was going to be great, that the Segway would change how
we live, that the electron was a useless oddity, that TV would never catch
on, that you couldn't sell books online, that search would never be
profitable, etc., etc.
The one thing about the Next Big Thing is that it's almost *impossible* to
predict -- except in retrospect, when everyone is suddenly much more
perceptive.
Mike Sellers
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Michael Chui
- [DESIGN] Who to design for? Michael Hartman
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Damion Schubert
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Tess Snider
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? cruise
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Dana V. Baldwin
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Mike Sellers
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Tess Snider
- [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Mike Sellers
- [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Sean Howard
- [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Mike Sellers
- [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Sean Howard
- [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Michael Chui
- [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Peter Keeler
- [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Ammon Lauritzen
- [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Sean Howard
- [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Lachek Butalek
- [Design] 4Cs (was Who to design for?) Dana V. Baldwin
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? cruise
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Sean Howard
- [DESIGN} Who to design for? Caliban Darklock
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Steve "Bloo" Daniels
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Caliban Darklock
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs cruise
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Steve "Bloo" Daniels
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Tess Snider
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Lachek Butalek
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Michael Chui
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Ian Hess
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Ian Hess
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Tess Snider
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Lachek Butalek
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Michael Hartman
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Kiztent
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Jean, Yannick
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Michael Hartman
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Vincent Archer
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Dave Scheffer
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Tess Snider
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Michael Chui
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs John Buehler
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Morris Cox
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Dana V. Baldwin
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Matt Chatterley
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Dana V. Baldwin
- [Design] [REPOST] Food in MMOs Michael Chui
- [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Dana V. Baldwin
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Steve "Bloo" Daniels
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Nick Koranda
- [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Damion Schubert
- [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Dana V. Baldwin
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Steve "Bloo" Daniels
- [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Steve "Bloo" Daniels
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Jeffrey Kesselman
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Tess Snider
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Cory Cohen
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Matt Chatterley
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Craig Huber
- [JOBS] Areae hiring Raph Koster
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Phillip Lenhardt
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Jeffrey Kesselman
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Jeffrey Kesselman
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Tess Snider
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Jeffrey Kesselman
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Tess Snider
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Jeffrey Kesselman
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Dave Scheffer
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Dana V. Baldwin
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Dave Scheffer
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Matt Chatterley
- [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Caliban Darklock
- [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Dana V. Baldwin
- [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Caliban Darklock
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Dana V. Baldwin
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Peter Keeler
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Dana V. Baldwin
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Peter Keeler
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Jeffrey Kesselman
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Peter Keeler
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Michael Chui
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Soy weiser
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Ammon Lauritzen
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Jeffrey Kesselman
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Ammon Lauritzen
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Dana V. Baldwin
- [DESIGN] Perma-death John Buehler
- [DESIGN] Perma-death Hans Häggström
- [DESIGN] Perma-death cruise
- [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employee interview Adam Martin
- [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employeeinterview Morgan Ramsay
- [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employee interview Sean Howard
- [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employee interview Adam Martin
- [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employee interview Caliban Darklock
- [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employeeinterview Mike Rozak
- Fwd: [NEWS] Sigil / Vanguard fallout ... the ex-employeeinterview Adam Martin
- [DESIGN] Mechanical support for socializer playstyles Ian Hess
- [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Roger D Vargas
- [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Alistair Riddoch
- [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Roger D Vargas
- [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Tess Snider
- [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Roger D Vargas
- [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Lachek Butalek
- [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Tess Snider
- [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Roger D Vargas
- [TECH] Creating games with Worldforge Tess Snider
- The Merits of Text Chat (Was: Importance of emoting) Michael Hartman
- The Merits of Text Chat (Was: Importance of emoting) Matt Chatterley
- [Design] Alternatives To Advancement Systems (was Food in MMOs) Caliban Darklock
- [DESIGN] Essence of a MMO (was 4Cs) Dana V. Baldwin
- [DESIGN] Essence of a MMO (was 4Cs) Caliban Darklock
- [DESIGN] Essence of a MMO (was 4Cs) Sean Howard
- [DESIGN] Essence of a MMO (was 4Cs) Dana V. Baldwin
- [TECH] Server Side Scripting Roger D Vargas
- [TECH] Server Side Scripting Caliban Darklock
- [TECH] Server Side Scripting Richard Tew
- [TECH] Server Side Scripting Ammon Lauritzen
- [TECH] Server Side Scripting Jeffrey Kesselman