January 2004

• The last days of Discord PVP server on EQ Frank Crowell
• • The last days of Discord PVP server on EQ szii@sziisoft.com
• biggest muds Matt Mihaly
• Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
• • Congratulations Horizons... Brad McQuaid
  • • Congratulations Horizons... Marian Griffith
    • • Congratulations Horizons... Brad McQuaid
      • • Congratulations Horizons... T H
        • Congratulations Horizons... Matt Mihaly
        • • Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
          • Congratulations Horizons... Chanur Silvarian
        • Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
        • • Congratulations Horizons... Brad McQuaid
        • Congratulations Horizons... Marian Griffith
        • • Congratulations Horizons... Chris Duesing
      • Congratulations Horizons... Mike Shaver
      • • Congratulations Horizons... Marian Griffith
      • Congratulations Horizons... Tom "cro" Gordon
    • Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
    • • Congratulations Horizons... Brad McQuaid
      • • Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
      • Congratulations Horizons... Christopher Kohnert
      • Congratulations Horizons... Vincent Archer
      • Congratulations Horizons... Chanur Silvarian
      • • Congratulations Horizons... Vincent Archer
        • • Congratulations Horizons... Chanur Silvarian
          • Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
          • • Congratulations Horizons... Chanur Silvarian
    • Congratulations Horizons... Matt Mihaly
    • • Congratulations Horizons... John Buehler
  • Congratulations Horizons... Philip M. Hofer {Frumph}
  • • Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
    • Congratulations Horizons... Paul Schwanz
    • • Congratulations Horizons... Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
      • • Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
      • Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
  • Congratulations Horizons... Matt Mihaly
  • • Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
• [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Ted L. Chen
• • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Ammon Lauritzen
  • • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Chanur Silvarian
    • • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Michael "Flury" Chui
      • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Zach Collins {Siege}
      • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers David Kennerly
  • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Paolo Piselli
  • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Sean Kelly
  • • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Chanur Silvarian
    • • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Alex Chacha
    • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Ted L. Chen
    • • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers ceo
      • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Dave Bacher
      • • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Hans-Henrik Staerfeldt
        • • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Ben Hawes
          • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Byron Ellacott
          • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Kirinyaga
        • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
        • • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers szii@sziisoft.com
          • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Brian Hook
          • • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
            • • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Mike Shaver
              • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Byron Ellacott
              • • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Byron Ellacott
        • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers J C Lawrence
          On Tue, 20 Jan 2004 20:44:07 -0500
          Dave Bacher <DaveB@battlebazaar.com> wrote:
          > On Fri, 16 Jan 2004 08:06:13 -0700, Ted L. Chen wrote:
          >> On Jan 8 2004, Sean Kelly wrote:
          
          > 10 consecutive rolls -- 1 in 10240000000000
          
          Before you take this too far, it isn't just 10 consecutive, it is the
          probability of any 10 value sequence, be it all 1s, or 1/2/3/4/5/6.../20
          or 2/4/6/8/10...20/1/3/5/7...29. All number sequences are of equal
          probability once they are defined, and it doesn't matter what the
          sequence is.
          
          > If I attack 6 on 3 once and lose, I'm likely to complain a little, but
          > write it off as chance. If I fail twice, I'm likely to complain a
          > little and write it off as chance. If I fail 20 turns in a row, then
          > I probably have a valid complaint -- either your dice are rigged or
          > you are impossibly lucky.
          
          The problem here is that bell curves don't just vanish at the edges.
          With straight dice sure it won't happen often, but that's the point. It
          will happen, just not often.
          
          ObTrueStory: In Risk I've marched a three-strong army all the way
          across Russia, across Africa and up through Brazil into North America
          fighting all the way without losing a man until I hit Texas. Then I
          died. I doubt I'll ever do that again, but it did happen. I even
          swapped and mixed dice with the opponent several times just in case
          they were off. I still lived. At one point my measly little one man
          defender successfully stood off and decimated an army of over 20.
          I'll be rather surprised if I ever see either happen again, the odds
          are against it, but it isn't impossible.
          
          Probability means just that, its a question of probabilities. It isn't
          very likely that all the air molecules in the room will simultaneously
          exit the building via random brownian motion, or that the hostess'
          undergarments will suddenly rematerialise three feet over to the left
          via quantum tunnelling, but it is possible, just very VERY improbable.
          
          Of course a cup of hot tea helps. I'm still waiting for the
          undergarments of my hostess to leap any observable distance in any
          direction at a party I'm attending, but I'm sure that if I can just
          get to enough parties it will eventually. Perhaps I'm not attending
          the right parties.
          
          Where this gets messy is human perception. The apparency (I haven't
          studied this) is that people tend to think that any behaviour more than
          a few percentiles out from the centre of a standard distribution is "too
          improbable" and that any sort of visible pattern in a "random" sequence
          that persists for more than a handful of values is "obviously not
          random", belieing the fact that such will necessarily occur in any
          random system. This view persists even when you demonstrate the fallacy
          for them.
          
          Flip a coin a hundred times. What was the longest streak of heads you
          got? What is the probability of such a streak of heads? Pretty small
          huh? Yet it happened... Flip it another 100 times. Are the numbers
          of heads and tails in each hundred even close to each other, or even
          close to 50? The odds are quite good they won't be, and yet the coin
          is (relatively) true.
          
          It all comes down to the fact that the value of the next coin flip isn't
          affected by the value of the prior flip, or the one before that. Yeah,
          I know you know that, but most people look at a sequence of 30 heads and
          say, "It can't be heads next time, that's just TOO improbable!" And yet
          it has the same improbability as flipping another head ... or tails.
          
          > If every time I play with you the fights go like this, I'm going to
          > believe strongly the dice are rigged. If every time I play, you are
          > impossibly lucky, the simplest explanation is that you are cheating.
          > And so, I will call you on it.
          
          Precisely.
          
          > The C PRNG is a LCG.
          
          AIR there is no formally standardised implementation of the PRNG for
          libC. Compilers have shipped with Mersenne based PRNGs. Modulo/LCG
          implementations are simply the most common (they're cheap).
          
          > If you show me the results of the rolls, then you have to be confident
          > there isn't actually a problem, because if I perceive a problem, the
          > first thing I'm going to do is run the logs through an analyzer and
          > see what numbers come out. In the most probably case, I'll find out
          > there really is a skew, and I'll proceed to post it on a web site and
          > it will become a much bigger issue than if it had been owned up to in
          > the first place, especially on a large game.
          
          Again the perception point enters: The sample sizes in such empirical
          reports are (statistically) horribly small. Any result generated from
          them can't be trusted. This isn't however the problem. The problem is
          that the small sample size is ignored, most people don't understand
          probability and thus there is a PR problem.
          
          The PR problem is the killer, not the distribution accuracy, and that's
          where the engineering problem definition comes in. In general we're not
          engineering for statistically accurate probability models, we're
          engineering for something that is perceived well, and in general that
          means a system which appears unpredictable to the untrained eye for
          almost all small sample sizes, and which, if anything, "fails" to the
          player advantage more than it should. "Appearing random" and "being
          truly random" are different problems with different solutions.
          
          I haven't known a player yet who would complain about being lucky.
          
          --
          J C Lawrence
          ---------(*) Satan, oscillate my metallic sonatas.
          claw@kanga.nu He lived as a devil, eh?
          http://www.kanga.nu/~claw/ Evil is a name of a foeman, as I live.
        • • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Rayzam
          • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Vincent Archer
        • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Robert Zubek
  • [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Travis Casey
• [BIZ] Defining 'churhn' in relation to MMO games Tom "cro" Gordon
• • [BIZ] Defining 'churhn' in relation to MMO games ren@aldermangroup.com
• Moderation delays J C Lawrence
• NEWS TECH: Welcome to the "MUD-Dev" mailing list Peter Seebach
• • NEWS TECH: Welcome to the "MUD-Dev" mailing list Jon Leonard
  • • NEWS TECH: Welcome to the "MUD-Dev" mailing list Peter Seebach
  • NEWS TECH: Welcome to the "MUD-Dev" mailing list Lars Duening
  • • NEWS TECH: Welcome to the "MUD-Dev" mailing list Peter Seebach
    • NEWS TECH: Welcome to the "MUD-Dev" mailing list Mats Lidstrom
    • • NEWS TECH: Welcome to the "MUD-Dev" mailing list Lars Duening
• Expected value and standard deviation. Michael Tresca
• • Expected value and standard deviation. Ola Fosheim Grøstad
  • • Expected value and standard deviation. Michael Tresca
    • • Expected value and standard deviation. Ola Fosheim Grøstad
• levels (was: ghost mode) Ola Fosheim Grøstad
• Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue 9) Paul Schwanz
• • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) John Buehler
  • • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Paul Schwanz
    • • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol7, Issue9) John Buehler
      • • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol7, Issue9) Paul Schwanz
        • • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol7, Issue9) John Buehler
    • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Freeman, Jeff
    • • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol7, Issue9) John Buehler
      • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Dave Bacher
    • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Ian McDonald
    • • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Paul Schwanz
  • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Rayzam
  • • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Paul Schwanz
    • • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol7, Issue9) Rayzam
      • • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol7, Issue9) Paul Schwanz
        • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol7, Issue9) Eli Stevens {WG.c}
    • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Sheela Caur'Lir
    • • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) John Buehler
      • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Dave Bacher
    • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
    • • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) T H
      • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Rayzam
  • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol7, Issue9) eversilver@yahoo.com
• Camping (Was just named as a generic MUD-DEV reply) Chanur Silvarian
• • Camping (Was just named as a generic MUD-DEV reply) ren@aldermangroup.com
  • Camping (Was just named as a generic MUD-DEV reply) Brent P. Newhall
• Exploits and hacks in MMORPGs Björn Morén
• • Exploits and hacks in MMORPGs Daniel Anderson
  • Exploits and hacks in MMORPGs Sheela Caur'Lir
  • Exploits and hacks in MMORPGs Kirinyaga
• Do players enjoy farming? Chanur Silvarian
• Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue 9) Paul Schwanz
• • Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue 9) Tom "cro" Gordon
• Online worlds and behavior... etykwins@fcbayern.de
• ANNOUNCE: MUD-Dev conference, 26 and 27 March 2004 J C Lawrence
• MudWorld.Org Anthony R. Haslage
• New MMORPG from the Army Amanda Walker
• • New MMORPG from the Army Dave Rickey
  • • New MMORPG from the Army Amanda Walker
    • • New MMORPG from the Army Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
• FedExing ghovs
• • FedExing Sean Middleditch
  • FedExing Ben Hawes
  • • FedExing Alistair Riddoch
    • • FedExing Jesus Lopez
      • • FedExing Alistair Riddoch
        • • FedExing Sean Middleditch
• Play styles and world interactionsistilldontwantitposted@phlange.com J C Lawrence
• Death and Permadeath and Corpse Retrieval Sean Middleditch
• • Death and Permadeath and Corpse Retrieval T H
  • • Death and Permadeath and Corpse Retrieval Ben Hawes
    • • Death and Permadeath and Corpse Retrieval Sean Middleditch
  • Death and Permadeath and Corpse Retrieval Spot
  • • Death and Permadeath and Corpse Retrieval Sean Middleditch
  • Death and Permadeath and Corpse Retrieval Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
• [DGN] Senior Focus Mentor Needed Andrew Budd
• [BIZ] HOW TO SCREW UP A PERFECTLY GOOD GAME COMPANY IN TEN EASY STEPS Michael Tresca
• [BIZ] TEN MORE EASY WAYS TO SCREW UP YOUR GAME COMPANY Michael Tresca
• Crafting systems Björn Morén
• Do Quests need to be Fed-Ex David Lyttle
• • Do Quests need to be Fed-Ex eversilver@yahoo.com
  • • Do Quests need to be Fed-Ex Chanur Silvarian
    • • Do Quests need to be Fed-Ex Sean Howard
      • • Do Quests need to be Fed-Ex Chanur Silvarian
        • • Do Quests need to be Fed-Ex Sean Howard
• Moving toward Massive Multiplay (was Congratulations Horizons...) Paul Schwanz
• • Moving toward Massive Multiplay (was Congratulations Horizons...) Mike Shaver
• ADMIN: Policy change J C Lawrence
• [TECH][TOOLS] SCM systems ceo
• • [TECH][TOOLS] SCM systems Erik Bethke
  • • [TECH][TOOLS] SCM systems ceo
    • [TECH][TOOLS] SCM systems Jon A. Lambert
• Problems with current RPGs Björn Morén
• • Problems with current RPGs Koster, Raph
  • • Problems with current RPGs Sean Howard
    • Problems with current RPGs Björn Morén
    • • Problems with current RPGs Koster, Raph
      • • Problems with current RPGs Björn Morén
        • • Problems with current RPGs David Johansson
    • Problems with current RPGs Yaka St.Aise
  • Problems with current RPGs Hans-Henrik Staerfeldt
  • • Problems with current RPGs Björn Morén
  • Problems with current RPGs Yaka St.Aise
• Character Perceptions John Buehler
• • Character Perceptions Derek Licciardi
  • • Character Perceptions John Buehler
    • • Character Perceptions ceo
      • • Character Perceptions John Buehler
  • Character Perceptions Scion Altera
  • • Character Perceptions John Buehler
  • Character Perceptions bjoernen@hotmail.com
  • • Character Perceptions John Buehler
• [BIZ] Warcraft Interview Michael Tresca
• • [BIZ] Warcraft Interview ceo
  • [BIZ] Warcraft Interview Björn Morén
• Raffle at the MUD-Dev Conference, March 27th and 28th 2004 Ann
• R: Moving toward Massive Multiplay (was CongratulationsHorizons...) Ghilardi Filippo
• Python script as stand alone MUD server... Jason Slaughter
• • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Sean Middleditch
  • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Alistair Riddoch
  • • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Jason Slaughter
    • • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Sean Middleditch
      • • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Alistair Riddoch
        • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Kwon J. Ekstrom
        • • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Alistair Riddoch
      • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Zach Collins {Siege}
      • • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Alistair Riddoch
      • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Alistair Riddoch
      • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Byron Ellacott
  • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Mats Lidstrom
  • Python script as stand alone MUD server... ceo
  • • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Zach Collins {Siege}
    • • Python script as stand alone MUD server... ceo
      • • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Zach Collins {Siege}
        • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Byron Ellacott
  • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Edward Glowacki
  • • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Brian Hook
    • • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Sean Middleditch
      • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Frank Crowell
  • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Byron Ellacott
  • • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Mike Shaver
    • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Alistair Riddoch
  • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Thomas Clive Richards
  • • Python script as stand alone MUD server... Zach Collins {Siege}
• [BIZ] Apparent acquisition of Yantis (mysupersales) by IDE Rudy Fink
• • [BIZ] Apparent acquisition of Yantis (mysupersales) by IDE Bruce Mitchener
• Meaning and entertainment - Farming and FedExing (was Do players enjoy farming?) Michael Sellers
• Power games Ana Valdés
• • Power games Mats Lidstrom
  • • Power games Ana Valdés
  • Power games Byron Ellacott
  • • Power games Ana Valdés
• Mage 2 Mage gbtmud
• • Mage 2 Mage Travis Casey
• Interpersonal Relations in Virtual Worlds Brad King
• • Interpersonal Relations in Virtual Worlds Chris
  • Interpersonal Relations in Virtual Worlds Nick Yee
  • Interpersonal Relations in Virtual Worlds Paul Schwanz
  • Interpersonal Relations in Virtual Worlds Ola Fosheim Grøstad
  • Interpersonal Relations in Virtual Worlds Lee Faris
• Platform choice Gary Whitten
• MUD client popularity Brian Hook
• • MUD client popularity Frank Crowell
  • MUD client popularity Ammon Lauritzen
  • • MUD client popularity Brian Hook
    • • MUD client popularity Rayzam
      • • MUD client popularity Brian Hook
        • • MUD client popularity Rayzam
      • MUD client popularity Edward Glowacki
      • • MUD client popularity J C Lawrence
        • • MUD client popularity Edward Glowacki
    • MUD client popularity Travis Casey
    • • MUD client popularity Ammon Lauritzen
      • MUD client popularity Byron Ellacott
      • • MUD client popularity Frank Fisher
      • MUD client popularity ceo
      • MUD client popularity Edward Glowacki
      • • MUD client popularity Emil Nilimaa
        • • MUD client popularity Tom "cro" Gordon
          • • MUD client popularity Edward Glowacki
      • MUD client popularity Sean Middleditch
      • • MUD client popularity Zach Collins {Siege}
        • • MUD client popularity Sean Middleditch
  • MUD client popularity Alistair Riddoch
  • MUD client popularity Byron Ellacott
  • MUD client popularity Brian Hook
  • MUD client popularity Brian Hook
  • • MUD client popularity Sean Middleditch
    • MUD client popularity Edward Glowacki
    • MUD client popularity Brent P. Newhall
• SMOG - small multiuser online game Frank Crowell
• • SMOG - small multiuser online game Miroslav Silovic
  • • SMOG - small multiuser online game Frank Crowell
  • SMOG - small multiuser online game Crosbie Fitch
  • • SMOG - small multiuser online game Frank Crowell
    • SMOG - small multiuser online game Byron Ellacott
    • • SMOG - small multiuser online game Crosbie Fitch
  • SMOG - small multiuser online game Byron Ellacott
  • • SMOG - small multiuser online game Tom "cro" Gordon
    • SMOG - small multiuser online game Crosbie Fitch
  • SMOG - small multiuser online game Crosbie Fitch
  • • SMOG - small multiuser online game maddog
• [BUS] How to build an MMOG... ceo
• [DGN] Subjective randomness (was: The psychology of random numbers) Robert Zubek
• • [DGN] Subjective randomness (was: The psychology of random numbers) Felix A. Croes
  • • [DGN] Subjective randomness (was: The psychology of random numbers) Sean Kelly
• Solutions for smarter NPCs Björn Morén
• • Solutions for smarter NPCs ext.Christer.Enfors@tietoenator.com
  • • Solutions for smarter NPCs info@castwide.com
  • Solutions for smarter NPCs Kirinyaga
  • • Solutions for smarter NPCs Vincent Archer
    • • Solutions for smarter NPCs Valerio Santinelli
      • Solutions for smarter NPCs Olivier Lejade
      • • Solutions for smarter NPCs Kirinyaga
        • • Solutions for smarter NPCs Olivier Lejade
  • Solutions for smarter NPCs Michael Sellers