January 2004
- The last days of Discord PVP server on EQ Frank Crowell
- The last days of Discord PVP server on EQ szii@sziisoft.com
- biggest muds Matt Mihaly
- Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
- Congratulations Horizons... Brad McQuaid
- Congratulations Horizons... Marian Griffith
- Congratulations Horizons... Brad McQuaid
- Congratulations Horizons... T H
- Congratulations Horizons... Matt Mihaly
- Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
- Congratulations Horizons... Chanur Silvarian
- Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
- Congratulations Horizons... Brad McQuaid
- Congratulations Horizons... Marian Griffith
- Congratulations Horizons... Chris Duesing
- Congratulations Horizons... Mike Shaver
- Congratulations Horizons... Marian Griffith
- Congratulations Horizons... Tom "cro" Gordon
- Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
- Congratulations Horizons... Brad McQuaid
- Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
- Congratulations Horizons... Christopher Kohnert
- Congratulations Horizons... Vincent Archer
- Congratulations Horizons... Chanur Silvarian
- Congratulations Horizons... Vincent Archer
- Congratulations Horizons... Chanur Silvarian
- Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
- Congratulations Horizons... Chanur Silvarian
- Congratulations Horizons... Matt Mihaly
- Congratulations Horizons... John Buehler
- Congratulations Horizons... Philip M. Hofer {Frumph}
- Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
- Congratulations Horizons... Paul Schwanz
- Congratulations Horizons... Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
- Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
- Congratulations Horizons... Matt Mihaly
- Congratulations Horizons... Lee Sheldon
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Ted L. Chen
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Ammon Lauritzen
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Chanur Silvarian
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Michael "Flury" Chui
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Zach Collins {Siege}
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers David Kennerly
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Paolo Piselli
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Sean Kelly
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Chanur Silvarian
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Alex Chacha
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Ted L. Chen
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers ceo
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Dave Bacher
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Hans-Henrik Staerfeldt
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Ben Hawes
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Byron Ellacott
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Kirinyaga
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers szii@sziisoft.com
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Brian Hook
On Fri, 23 Jan 2004 11:25:04 -0000,
Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com wrote:
> What do you use to do the analysis? I've always wanted to do that
> on Everquest because it has always seemed to be very
> streaky. There were enough complaints at one point that the devs
> actually commented on it (only to say its fine).
I don't remember what they used, but anyone that has a clue will, at
the very least, be using Mersenne Twister instead of the C rand().
And Mersenne Twister seems to be pretty well tested in the real
world.
That said, even if EQ had used C rand(), any bias would have been
_undetectable_ to a typical player on a server. Think about it --
in a given zone, you have a few dozen mobs and a few dozen players,
all doing stuff. PRNs are being generated several times a second --
what are the odds that your character is going to have locked,
sequential access to the local PRNG for 9 rolls in a row?
The fact is that streaks are inevitable. This is a pretty
fundamental part of randomness -- if streaks didn't occur, then by
definition it wouldn't be random.
What people equate with randomness isn't true randomness, it's even
distributions based on some percentage. E.g. if you have a 75%
chance of success, people expect to see:
T T T F T T T F T T T F T T T F
Or at least something approximation that. If they occasionally get a:
F F F F F F T T T T T T T F F F
They freak out because it's "impossible" to get 6 failures in a row
(when, in fact, it's guaranteed to happen at some point).
We ran into this with our puzzle games of all things. We had a
fixed percentage chance that a bonus item would appear every time a
new row of items was introduced, but sometimes instead of getting it
every 7 rows, you'd have to wait 25 rows for one, then get a streak
of, say, 2 bonus items in 3 rows.
So to fix that, you have to do a biased PRNG that takes into account
the last success, assigns a sliding bias as that time grows.
Which most definitely isn't random, but it FEELS more random.
Brian - [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Mike Shaver
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Byron Ellacott
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Byron Ellacott
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers J C Lawrence
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Rayzam
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Vincent Archer
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Robert Zubek
- [DGN] The psychology of random numbers Travis Casey
- [BIZ] Defining 'churhn' in relation to MMO games Tom "cro" Gordon
- [BIZ] Defining 'churhn' in relation to MMO games ren@aldermangroup.com
- Moderation delays J C Lawrence
- NEWS TECH: Welcome to the "MUD-Dev" mailing list Peter Seebach
- NEWS TECH: Welcome to the "MUD-Dev" mailing list Jon Leonard
- NEWS TECH: Welcome to the "MUD-Dev" mailing list Peter Seebach
- NEWS TECH: Welcome to the "MUD-Dev" mailing list Lars Duening
- NEWS TECH: Welcome to the "MUD-Dev" mailing list Peter Seebach
- NEWS TECH: Welcome to the "MUD-Dev" mailing list Mats Lidstrom
- NEWS TECH: Welcome to the "MUD-Dev" mailing list Lars Duening
- Expected value and standard deviation. Michael Tresca
- Expected value and standard deviation. Ola Fosheim Grøstad
- Expected value and standard deviation. Michael Tresca
- Expected value and standard deviation. Ola Fosheim Grøstad
- levels (was: ghost mode) Ola Fosheim Grøstad
- Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue 9) Paul Schwanz
- Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) John Buehler
- Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Rayzam
- Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Paul Schwanz
- Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Sheela Caur'Lir
- Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue9) Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol7, Issue9) eversilver@yahoo.com
- Camping (Was just named as a generic MUD-DEV reply) Chanur Silvarian
- Camping (Was just named as a generic MUD-DEV reply) ren@aldermangroup.com
- Camping (Was just named as a generic MUD-DEV reply) Brent P. Newhall
- Exploits and hacks in MMORPGs Björn Morén
- Exploits and hacks in MMORPGs Daniel Anderson
- Exploits and hacks in MMORPGs Sheela Caur'Lir
- Exploits and hacks in MMORPGs Kirinyaga
- Do players enjoy farming? Chanur Silvarian
- Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue 9) Paul Schwanz
- Do players enjoy farming? (was MUD-Dev Digest, Vol 7, Issue 9) Tom "cro" Gordon
- Online worlds and behavior... etykwins@fcbayern.de
- ANNOUNCE: MUD-Dev conference, 26 and 27 March 2004 J C Lawrence
- MudWorld.Org Anthony R. Haslage
- New MMORPG from the Army Amanda Walker
- New MMORPG from the Army Dave Rickey
- New MMORPG from the Army Amanda Walker
- New MMORPG from the Army Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- FedExing ghovs
- Play styles and world interactionsistilldontwantitposted@phlange.com J C Lawrence
- Death and Permadeath and Corpse Retrieval Sean Middleditch
- Death and Permadeath and Corpse Retrieval T H
- Death and Permadeath and Corpse Retrieval Ben Hawes
- Death and Permadeath and Corpse Retrieval Sean Middleditch
- Death and Permadeath and Corpse Retrieval Spot
- Death and Permadeath and Corpse Retrieval Sean Middleditch
- Death and Permadeath and Corpse Retrieval Daniel.Harman@barclayscapital.com
- [DGN] Senior Focus Mentor Needed Andrew Budd
- [BIZ] HOW TO SCREW UP A PERFECTLY GOOD GAME COMPANY IN TEN EASY STEPS Michael Tresca
- [BIZ] TEN MORE EASY WAYS TO SCREW UP YOUR GAME COMPANY Michael Tresca
- Crafting systems Björn Morén
- Do Quests need to be Fed-Ex David Lyttle
- Do Quests need to be Fed-Ex eversilver@yahoo.com
- Do Quests need to be Fed-Ex Chanur Silvarian
- Do Quests need to be Fed-Ex Sean Howard
- Do Quests need to be Fed-Ex Chanur Silvarian
- Do Quests need to be Fed-Ex Sean Howard
- Moving toward Massive Multiplay (was Congratulations Horizons...) Paul Schwanz
- ADMIN: Policy change J C Lawrence
- [TECH][TOOLS] SCM systems ceo
- [TECH][TOOLS] SCM systems Erik Bethke
- [TECH][TOOLS] SCM systems ceo
- [TECH][TOOLS] SCM systems Jon A. Lambert
- Problems with current RPGs Björn Morén
- Problems with current RPGs Koster, Raph
- Problems with current RPGs Sean Howard
- Problems with current RPGs Björn Morén
- Problems with current RPGs Koster, Raph
- Problems with current RPGs Björn Morén
- Problems with current RPGs David Johansson
- Problems with current RPGs Yaka St.Aise
- Problems with current RPGs Hans-Henrik Staerfeldt
- Problems with current RPGs Björn Morén
- Problems with current RPGs Yaka St.Aise
- Character Perceptions John Buehler
- Character Perceptions Derek Licciardi
- Character Perceptions John Buehler
- Character Perceptions ceo
- Character Perceptions John Buehler
- Character Perceptions Scion Altera
- Character Perceptions John Buehler
- Character Perceptions bjoernen@hotmail.com
- Character Perceptions John Buehler
- [BIZ] Warcraft Interview Michael Tresca
- [BIZ] Warcraft Interview ceo
- [BIZ] Warcraft Interview Björn Morén
- Raffle at the MUD-Dev Conference, March 27th and 28th 2004 Ann
- R: Moving toward Massive Multiplay (was CongratulationsHorizons...) Ghilardi Filippo
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Jason Slaughter
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Sean Middleditch
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Alistair Riddoch
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Jason Slaughter
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Sean Middleditch
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Alistair Riddoch
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Kwon J. Ekstrom
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Alistair Riddoch
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Zach Collins {Siege}
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Alistair Riddoch
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Alistair Riddoch
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Byron Ellacott
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Mats Lidstrom
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... ceo
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Zach Collins {Siege}
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... ceo
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Zach Collins {Siege}
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Byron Ellacott
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Edward Glowacki
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Brian Hook
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Sean Middleditch
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Frank Crowell
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Byron Ellacott
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Mike Shaver
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Alistair Riddoch
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Thomas Clive Richards
- Python script as stand alone MUD server... Zach Collins {Siege}
- [BIZ] Apparent acquisition of Yantis (mysupersales) by IDE Rudy Fink
- [BIZ] Apparent acquisition of Yantis (mysupersales) by IDE Bruce Mitchener
- Meaning and entertainment - Farming and FedExing (was Do players enjoy farming?) Michael Sellers
- Power games Ana Valdés
- Power games Mats Lidstrom
- Power games Ana Valdés
- Power games Byron Ellacott
- Power games Ana Valdés
- Mage 2 Mage gbtmud
- Mage 2 Mage Travis Casey
- Interpersonal Relations in Virtual Worlds Brad King
- Interpersonal Relations in Virtual Worlds Chris
- Interpersonal Relations in Virtual Worlds Nick Yee
- Interpersonal Relations in Virtual Worlds Paul Schwanz
- Interpersonal Relations in Virtual Worlds Ola Fosheim Grøstad
- Interpersonal Relations in Virtual Worlds Lee Faris
- Platform choice Gary Whitten
- MUD client popularity Brian Hook
- MUD client popularity Frank Crowell
- MUD client popularity Ammon Lauritzen
- MUD client popularity Brian Hook
- MUD client popularity Rayzam
- MUD client popularity Brian Hook
- MUD client popularity Rayzam
- MUD client popularity Edward Glowacki
- MUD client popularity J C Lawrence
- MUD client popularity Edward Glowacki
- MUD client popularity Travis Casey
- MUD client popularity Ammon Lauritzen
- MUD client popularity Byron Ellacott
- MUD client popularity Frank Fisher
- MUD client popularity ceo
- MUD client popularity Edward Glowacki
- MUD client popularity Emil Nilimaa
- MUD client popularity Tom "cro" Gordon
- MUD client popularity Edward Glowacki
- MUD client popularity Sean Middleditch
- MUD client popularity Zach Collins {Siege}
- MUD client popularity Sean Middleditch
- MUD client popularity Alistair Riddoch
- MUD client popularity Byron Ellacott
- MUD client popularity Brian Hook
- MUD client popularity Brian Hook
- MUD client popularity Sean Middleditch
- MUD client popularity Edward Glowacki
- MUD client popularity Brent P. Newhall
- SMOG - small multiuser online game Frank Crowell
- SMOG - small multiuser online game Miroslav Silovic
- SMOG - small multiuser online game Frank Crowell
- SMOG - small multiuser online game Crosbie Fitch
- SMOG - small multiuser online game Frank Crowell
- SMOG - small multiuser online game Byron Ellacott
- SMOG - small multiuser online game Crosbie Fitch
- SMOG - small multiuser online game Byron Ellacott
- SMOG - small multiuser online game Tom "cro" Gordon
- SMOG - small multiuser online game Crosbie Fitch
- SMOG - small multiuser online game Crosbie Fitch
- [BUS] How to build an MMOG... ceo
- [DGN] Subjective randomness (was: The psychology of random numbers) Robert Zubek
- Solutions for smarter NPCs Björn Morén
- Solutions for smarter NPCs ext.Christer.Enfors@tietoenator.com
- Solutions for smarter NPCs info@castwide.com
- Solutions for smarter NPCs Kirinyaga
- Solutions for smarter NPCs Vincent Archer
- Solutions for smarter NPCs Valerio Santinelli
- Solutions for smarter NPCs Olivier Lejade
- Solutions for smarter NPCs Kirinyaga
- Solutions for smarter NPCs Olivier Lejade
- Solutions for smarter NPCs Michael Sellers