May 2000
- Interesting online game Brian Green
- Bayesian statistics Ola Fosheim Grøstad
- Client Technology Jon Morrow
- Client Technology Todd McKimmey
- Client Technology Andrew Wilson
- Client Technology Ben Greear
- Client Technology Greg Munt
- Client Technology Ola Fosheim Grøstad
- Client Technology Joel Dillon
- Advogato J C Lawrence
- tdbm etc. J C Lawrence
- text user interface Eli Stevens
- text user interface Chris Gray
- Legends of Kesmai, RIP Raph Koster
- Legends of Kesmai, RIP Clevmut@aol.com
- Medievia ads in PCGamer? Schubert, Damion
- Medievia ads in PCGamer? Rasdan
- FIrst LOgin REview (was attracting players) Ola Fosheim Grøstad
- FIrst LOgin REview (was attracting players) adam@treyarch.com
- FIrst LOgin REview (was attracting players) David Bennett
- FIrst LOgin REview (was attracting players) adam@treyarch.com
- FIrst LOgin REview (was attracting players) David Bennett
- FIrst LOgin REview (was attracting players) Chris Gray
- FIrst LOgin REview (was attracting players) Chris Gray
- Addressing newbies Johan J Ingles-le Nobel
- Addressing newbies stoddart@slip.net
- Addressing newbies adam@treyarch.com
- Addressing newbies J C Lawrence
- Addressing newbies Chris Gray
- Addressing newbies Powell, Warren
- Addressing newbies adam@treyarch.com
- Addressing newbies Chris Lloyd
- Addressing newbies adam@treyarch.com
- Addressing newbies Chris Lloyd
- Addressing newbies adam@treyarch.com
- Addressing newbies Christopher Allen
- Addressing newbies J C Lawrence
- Addressing newbies J C Lawrence
- Addressing newbies Raph Koster
- Addressing newbies Christopher Allen
- Addressing newbies adam@treyarch.com
- Addressing newbies J C Lawrence
- Introduction Ian C. Smith
- constructive quests Ola Fosheim Grøstad
- new email address Travis Casey
- [Meta] chest puffing (fwd) J C Lawrence
- [Meta] chest puffing (fwd) J C Lawrence
- [Meta] chest puffing (fwd) Matthew Mihaly
- [Meta] chest puffing (fwd) Ola Fosheim Grøstad
- [Meta] chest puffing (fwd) Par Winzell
- [Meta] chest puffing (fwd) Matthew Mihaly
- [Meta] chest puffing (fwd) Ola Fosheim Grøstad
- [Meta] chest puffing (fwd) Matthew Mihaly
- Critique: Realms of Despair adam@treyarch.com
- Critique: Realms of Despair David Bennett
- Critique: Realms of Despair Kevin Scott London
- Critique: Realms of Despair adam@treyarch.com
- Critique: Realms of Despair Andrew Ritchie
- Critique: Realms of Despair adam@treyarch.com
- Critique: Realms of Despair adam@treyarch.com
- Critique: Realms of Despair Marc Bowden
- Software combinations Ian C. Smith
- Software combinations David Bennett
- Software combinations Erik Jarvi
- Software combinations Ian C. Smith
- Software combinations Scatter
- Software combinations J C Lawrence
- Hobby Muds and Money Maarten van Leunen
- Hobby Muds and Money Mordengaard
- Mud Clients Mud Imp
- update on selling Godhoods Matthew Mihaly
- update on selling Godhoods Brian Green
- update on selling Godhoods Richard Woolcock
- update on selling Godhoods Matthew Mihaly
- update on selling Godhoods Jeremy Hovance
- Ten commandments for the next MMORPG Raph Koster
- Ten commandments for the next MMORPG Dan Shiovitz
- Ten commandments for the next MMORPG Brian Green
- Ten commandments for the next MMORPG Matthew Mihaly
- Ten commandments for the next MMORPG AR Schleicher
- Ten commandments for the next MMORPG Mud Imp
- Ten Commandments for the next MMORPG The Inquisition Administrator
- Ten commandments for the next MMORPG David Wruck
- MudDev FAQ 2 Marian Griffith
- MudDev FAQ 2 Wes Connell
- The great myth of broadband Brian Green
- The great myth of broadband Madrona Tree
- The great myth of broadband Par Winzell
- The great myth of broadband John Bertoglio
> Brian Green
> Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2000 3:19 PM
<some cut>
> The most interesting is one by Jupiter communications:
>
> --------------------
> U.S Net Population Broadband Adoption Plans
>
> 2% Within the next six months
> 3% Within the next year
> 5% Within the next two years
> 5% Already have broadband
> 11% As soon as it's offered
> 73% No plans to switch to broadband
> --------------------
>
> Yep, that's right, about three-quarters of current net users have no
> plans to upgrade from their 56K (if that) modems.
<The crowd waits as JB puts on his market research hat. (Over 10 years in
the biz.)>
While consumer research can be very accurate, one must be very careful about
how a study is presented and then interpreted. Judging future consumer
behavior is tricky, especially when it involves new concepts where the
benefits are not yet clear. Essentially, I would challenge the 73% figure.
If you asked pre-Model T consumers if they expect to buy a car in the
future, many will say no because they know they will never be able to afford
a hand crafted motor car. All of a sudden the Model T exists and they are
car owners. Disruptive technologies tend to explode once they get past their
novelty and early adopter stages. I suggest the same will happen with
broadband.
A couple of additional points:
(1) Many people will acquire broadband access without knowing it or
requesting it. It will simply be the only method offered whether it comes
down the TV cable or multiplexed over power company lines.
(2) Major changes in non-US telecoms are happening. (Yes, there is a world
outside of our borders). A friend in England is participating in a trial of
unmetered DSL access in London. The demand for unmetered access is huge and
will (despite monopoly telecoms) happen. Late arrivals to new technology
tend to bypass older tools. Once you allow unmetered access, you might as
well switch people into high speed circuits and get the extra performance to
justify the initial rip-off prices which are offered.
(3) The majority of the people who will be on the net in 5 years are not
there now. Most of them will use some form of "always on" access because of
convenience issues. It turns out that this also describes most broadband
schemes.
<some cut>
> (Can hear the Skotos crowd cheering in the background. ;)
There are good reasons for any low bandwidth system to cheer. While
broadband is coming, one would be a fool to discount the advantages of a
system which does not require it. The key is to balance user interface
expectations (framed largely by web browsers) and the building of a
compelling experience. There's another post in that topic, but I don't have
the energy tonight for another "HTML-based MUD as the future of the hobby"
rant.
John A. Bertoglio
_____
PulsePoll.com <http://www.pulsepoll.com/>
| 503.781.3563
| jb@pulsepoll.com
- Effective use of the third dimension Richard Ross
- Effective use of the third dimension adam@treyarch.com
- Effective use of the third dimension Richard Tew
- Ten commandments for players of the next MMORPG Ananda Dawnsinger
- Free Speech Jeff Freeman
- Free Speech Ananda Dawnsinger
- Free Speech Par Winzell
- Free Speech Jeff Freeman
- Free Speech Jon A. Lambert
- Free Speech Schubert, Damion
- Free Speech Matthew Mihaly
- Free Speech Jessica Mulligan
- Free Speech Darren Henderson
- Free Speech kitkat@marcus.pants.nu
- Free Speech Gary Whitten
- Free Speech J C Lawrence
- Free Speech Geoffrey A. MacDougall
- Free Speech Jeremy Hovance
- RPGPlanet article: The Evils of Character Progression Raph Koster
- More storytelling - And also game secrets Chris Lloyd
- Marketing text-based games (was: Ten Commandments for the next MMORPG) Andrew Ritchie
- java performance questions (fwd) J C Lawrence
- MUDs as art (was A footnote to Procedural Storytelling) Ola Fosheim Grøstad
- MUDs as art (was A footnote to Procedural Storytelling) Lee Sheldon
- MUDs as art (was A footnote to Procedural Storytelling) Caliban Tiresias Darklock
- Any hungry Java GUI programmers out there? Par Winzell
- Any hungry Java GUI programmers out there? Par Winzell
- Supporting multiple output formats Nolan Darilek
- The 10 basic rules of a good PvP system Raph Koster
- Player storytellers? Travis Nixon
- Thoughts about smarter Sims Jon A. Lambert
- Thoughts about smarter Sims J C Lawrence
- Thoughts about smarter Sims Jon A. Lambert
- Thoughts about smarter Sims Raph Koster
- Thoughts about smarter Sims Jon A. Lambert
- Thoughts about smarter Sims Paul Schwanz - Enterprise Services
- Thoughts about smarter Sims Jon A. Lambert
- Thoughts about smarter Sims Mordengaard
- Thoughts about smarter Sims Jon A. Lambert
- Thoughts about smarter Sims Justin Rogers
- Thoughts about smarter Sims Jon A. Lambert
- Advancement considered harmful (long) Brian Green
- Advancement considered harmful (long) Zak Jarvis
- Advancement considered harmful (long) J C Lawrence
- Advancement considered harmful (long) Zak Jarvis
- Advancement considered harmful (long) Raph Koster
- Advancement considered harmful (long) Zak Jarvis
- Advancement considered harmful (long) Charles Hughes
- Advancement considered harmful (long) Zak Jarvis
- Advancement considered harmful (long) Dave Rickey
- Advancement considered harmful (long) J C Lawrence
- Advancement considered harmful (long) Travis Nixon
- Advancement considered harmful (long) Paul Schwanz - Enterprise Services
- Advancement considered harmful (long) Miroslav Silovic
- Advancement considered harmful (long) Batir
- What I want, what players want Andrew Ritchie
- What I want, what players want Chris Jacobson
- What I want, what players want Jeff Freeman
- What I want, what players want Nicolai Hansen
- What I want, what players want Darren Henderson
- What I want, what players want adam@treyarch.com
- Domain Names and Trademarks Jon Morrow
- Domain Names and Trademarks J C Lawrence
- Domain Names and Trademarks Sellers, Michael
- Narratology WAS: Self-Sufficient Worlds Zak Jarvis
- Narratology WAS: Self-Sufficient Worlds J C Lawrence
- Narratology WAS: Self-Sufficient Worlds Zak Jarvis
- Narratology WAS: Self-Sufficient Worlds Christopher Allen
- narratology WAS Self-Sufficient Worlds Angela Ferraiolo
- FW: Advancement considered harmful (long) John Buehler
- Narratology and its application to VR, multi-player games, and the like J C Lawrence
- FW: Advancement considered harmful (long) John Buehler
- coordinate systems Richard Tew
- coordinate systems Jon Leonard
- coordinate systems Kerem 'Waster_' HADIMLI